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The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - There's a renewed scramble for copper sitting in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Headline LME copper stocks have slid from 100,100 tonnes to 77,050 over the last three weeks despite almost 30,000 tonnes of arrivals. The drain on LME copper stocks is puzzling given weakening manufacturing activity in both Europe and the United States. It wouldn't be the first time that the LME stocks signal has been refracted, and the lower the stocks, the easier it is to bend the light. The Shanghai exchange has experienced tightness across the front part of the curve since March, with time-spreads now also the widest since November.

Persons: Boliden's, Copper, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, LME, U.S ., CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Futures, ShFE's, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, London, ShFE, INE, Shanghai, China, Asia

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin has been treading water in a $23,700-26,800 range since the start of May. Although the demand outlook remains subdued, tin supply is facing two big threats, one from Myanmar and one from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Global tin supply, meanwhile, is now improving after an early-year drop in Indonesia shipments. Refined tin production fell year-on-year in May and Guangxi China Tin Group, the world's sixth-largest tin producer, has just announced a 40-50 day maintenance break from the end of this month, according to the ITA. Indonesia currently only has enough downstream capacity to absorb 5% of its domestic tin production, meaning that any restrictions will likely come in phases.

Persons: Minsur, International Tin Association . Tin, It's, David Evans Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Global, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Global Semiconductor, HIT, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Local, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association ., ITA, Guangxi China Tin Group, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midwest, London, imploding, Myanmar, Indonesia, Peruvian, United States, Europe MYANMAR, Wa, China, Wa State, Guangxi China, INDONESIA

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is once again looking to shine more light on what lies in the shadows of its warehousing system. The exchange's daily stocks reports offer a rare hard data point in a murky statistical landscape for metal traders. LME stocks are flatlining but is this down to the market or changed market behaviour? Traders will game any system they come up against but the current LME stocks reporting regime makes it too easy. Restoring trust in exchange stocks reporting is a key step in winning back the broader confidence of the market.

Persons: it's, Mark Potter Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Shanghai Futures, Traders, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Shanghai

Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut this year as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. The INSG expects only "mild growth" in the stainless sector this year. Taking up the slack from a weak stainless sector is demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. This changes the nature of this particular nickel surplus. LME stocks of Class I nickel continue to slide even as surplus builds in other parts of the supply chain.

China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.

But it serves to highlight the importance of one of the most inaccessible parts of southeast Asia to the global tin supply chain. Imports from Myanmar grew from 30,000 tonnes in 2012 to 89,000 tonnes in 2013 and mushroomed to almost 500,000 tonnes in 2016. CHINESE DEPENDENCEThe Myanmar tin boom occurred at the right time for China's tin smelters, many of which were struggling to bring on new mining capacity as Beijing steadily tightened environmental controls on the mining sector. However, the threat alone underscores the fragility of tin supply at a time when Indonesia, the largest exporter of the metal in refined form, is mulling an export ban to stimulate the build-out of downstream processing capacity. This is probably not going to be the last time tin gets spooked by unexpected news from Myanmar.

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A year on from the nickel crisis the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still struggling to regain trading momentum. Volumes dropped sharply after the controversial decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel trades. In this subdued metals trading landscape there are currently two unlikely star performers: London lead and Shanghai tin. The Shanghai nickel contract took a big collateral hit from the LME's crisis and volumes remain depressed, down by half year-on-year in the first quarter. ShFE volumes year-on-year change in Q1 2023LEAD GETS INDEX BOOSTERThe two metallic stand-outs in terms of first-quarter trading activity were LME lead and ShFE tin.

Soldering demand from the electronics sector remains weak and investors in London and Shanghai continue to play the market from the short side. Surging purchases of electronic goods during lockdown were followed by sharply reduced spending as many Western consumers were hit by a cost-of-living squeeze. LME positioning reports show both investment funds and other financial players are currently net short of the London tin contract after the early-year rally went into reverse. LME tin price, stocks and cash-3s spreadSHANGHAI STOCKS UP, LONDON STOCKS DOWNReasons to be negative are more obvious in China. ShFE registered tin stocks have risen by 60% to 8,745 tonnes since the start of January.

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

☆ Rio Tinto sees robust short term outlook for copper
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] A worker stands at a processing facility at Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in the Gobi Desert, Mongolia March 13, 2023. RentsendorjKHANBOGD, Mongolia, March 14 (Reuters) - The short-term outlook for copper is "pretty healthy," with global stockpiles trending down and mine disruptions having eroded supply from Latin America, Rio Tinto's head of copper Bold Baatar said on Tuesday. "Physical stocks of inventories of copper are at multi-year lows," he said, adding that copper demand in China was "relatively strong." "So at the moment, even in the short-term outlook, there's a pretty healthy demand picture," Baatar said. Reporting by B. Rentsendorj at Oyu Tolgoi and Mai Nguyen in Hanoi; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The global nickel market flipped from deficit to surplus over the course of 2022, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Indonesia's mined nickel production expanded by 48% to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, according to the INSG. However, as Indonesian production of Class II nickel rises, the Class I market shrinks. Around 70% of the physical nickel supply chain is now priced at a discount to the LME benchmark. LME nickel volumes slumped by 28% last year and January's activity was 60% lower than that of January 2022.

☆ Exclusive: CME to launch nickel contract using prices from new platform -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CME want a nickel contract, they are planning to base it on traded prices on GCH's physical platform," one of the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. In response to a request for comment, CME said: "We cannot comment on whether we are developing any particular product." Nickel industry sources said illiquidity meant LME nickel prices often did not represent the fundamentals of the market. "There aren't really any alternatives to the LME contract at the moment and the market needs a liquid contract. Using ShFE's nickel contract is difficult for non-Chinese firms as they need to be affiliated with a local entity and because it is priced in yuan.

The gains are being driven by restocking by steel mills in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore and produces half of the world's steel. It's worth noting that stockpiles remain well below the same week last year, when they were at 160.95 million tonnes. Australia's iron ore exports are likely to drop in February, with Kpler estimating shipments of 57.7 million tonnes, while Refinitiv is forecasting 58.74 million. While Australia and Brazil dominate the global seaborne iron ore trade, it's worth noting that other exporters aren't adding much to the overall supply story. The supply shortage and expectations of increasing Chinese demand are likely to provide a solid base for further gains in spot iron ore prices.

Power-hungry aluminium producers in Yunnan and neighbouring provinces were already operating at reduced capacity, some of them since September, dragging down China's national output. The latest cuts will impact around 740,000 tonnes of annual production capacity, adding to the million tonnes already offline, according to industry consultancy Mysteel. Aluminium capacity has grown to around 5.25 million tonnes, making it the fourth largest provincial producer after Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. January's estimated annualised production was 40.50 million tonnes, a drop of almost one million tonnes over the last five months. Registered inventory on both exchanges has risen fast, cushioning the supply chain from the loss of Chinese production momentum.

Surging Shanghai metal stocks have injected an element of doubt into the bull narrative and the LME Index is now showing year-to-date gains of only 3% after a February pull-back. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks of aluminium, copper and zincSEASONAL SURGEMetals bulls have been nervously watching the fast build in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stocks over the past few weeks. Copper stocks have grown equally dramatically, from 69,268 tonnes to 242,009 tonnes over the same period. It is currently assessed by Shanghai Metal Market at a bombed-out $22.50 a tonne, down from an October high of $152.50. WAIT AND WATCHIt's difficult to say until China's seasonal stocks pattern plays out in full.

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - China was a net exporter of refined zinc last year for the first time since 2007, while exports of refined lead remained super strong for the second year running. China's net trade in refined leadTRADE SWITCHChina exported 116,500 tonnes of refined lead last year, the highest-volume outflow since 2007. The Flin Flon zinc smelter in Canada produced its last zinc in 2022 after more than 25 years of activity. That of the Florence secondary lead plant in South Carolina in 2021, by contrast, was an unexpected hit to the U.S. supply chain. If China gets there first, last year's east-west imbalances in both zinc and lead markets may last longer than expected.

China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.

China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

Currently trading around $9,130, the copper price is up by 9.6% since the start of January. Investors played copper from the short side for much of last year, if they were prepared to engage at all. The funds' sudden return is a sign that many are betting on a much sunnier outlook. "To the degree these short positions have not already covered, this may support copper in the short term", the bank said. It's clear, though, that copper long positioning is primarily a bet on Chinese recovery, underpinned by measures to revitalise a foundering property sector and more metals-intensive green infrastructure.

It's the lowest end-year inventory in the system this century and reflects two years of steady withdrawals which have left exchange stocks of metals such as zinc and lead almost depleted. It's no coincidence that all the LME base metals have experienced bouts of extreme tightness over the last couple of years. Zinc stocks were down by 65% and lead stocks down by 59% on December 2021. LME stocks could desperately do with any sort of rebuild, whether seasonal or cyclical. So far, however, significant arrivals remain conspicuous by their absence and until that changes, low visible inventory is going to keep roiling the LME base metals.

☆ Exclusive: UK watchdog blocks LME plan to restart Asian hours nickel trade-sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The world's largest metals trading exchange was forced to suspend all nickel activity for eight days in March 2022, after prices spiked more than 50% during Asian trading hours to hit a record above $100,000 a tonne. Volumes and liquidity on the LME have collapsed since then, partly due to the continued suspension of nickel trade in the Asian time zone. The LME had said on Nov. 28 that it hoped to resume trading during Asian hours within two weeks. "The regulator wants the LME to monitor nickel trading and make sure volatility is contained. "The regulator needs to be sure that if Asian hours nickel trade was to resume, supervision is effective.

Although commanding a weighting of just 0.936%, lower than any other industrial metal, lead is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) for the first time this year. LME lead three-month price, stocks and spreadsSTOCKED OUTLME lead stocks fell by 54% to 25,150 tonnes over the course of last year. The distribution of LME warehouse stocks says a lot about the underlying stresses in the physical supply chain. China has emerged as a supplier of last resort to a stretched Western market. REBALANCINGThe lead market that has been trying to rebalance for two years and the return of Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter in Australia after three months of maintenance should help.

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - March 2022 will go down in the history books as the moment the global nickel market broke down. The search is on for a new nickel price discovery process. Global Commodities Holdings (GCH) thinks it has a solution, a blast from the LME's own distant past that could have far-reaching consequences for industrial metals trading. This is self-evidently true of the LME nickel contract, which simply could not absorb the scale of short positions accumulated by China's Tsingshan Group. It may not just be nickel players keeping a close eye on GCH's proposed new metals pricing solution.

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